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Analysts polled by Bank of Russia revised inflation forecast for 2026

Analysts expect inflation will be close to the 4% target in 2027

MOSCOW, May 28. /TASS/. Analysts polled by the Bank of Russia in May keep the inflation forecast for this year at the level of 7.1% and lowered it to 4.6% for 2026, the regulator said on its website.

Analysts expect inflation will be close to the 4% target in 2027.

Forecasts for GDP growth was lowered to 1.5% in 2025, kept unchanged at 1.7% in 2026 and reduced to 1.9% in 2027. The median estimate of long-term growth rates was kept at 1.8%.

Key rate expectations did not have any significant changes. They slightly decreased for 2026 and were revised upward for 2027. The median forecast for this year is 20.0% per annum and 14.2% per annum for the year of 2026. The actual key rate computed on the basis of analysts’ forecasts is 12.9% per annum in 2025, 9.3% per annum in 2026, and 5.8% per annum in 2027.

The unemployment rate predicted is also without significant changes. Analyst expect that it will stay at 2.5% in 2025 and grow to 2.7% in 2026 and 3.0% by 2027.

Experts believe the ruble will be stronger. The forecast is 91.5 rubles per dollar in 2025, 101.4 rubles per dollar in 2026, and 105.6 rubles per dollar in 2027.

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