MOSCOW, June 4 /TASS/. Vladimir Zelensky’s administration faces considerable internal resistance, notably from nationalists and radical elements within the armed forces, who are unlikely to support measures such as lifting martial law, demobilizing troops, or withdrawing from Donbass and Novorossiya. According to political scientist and international relations expert Vladimir Karasev, Kiev is likely to stall on these issues, engaging instead in prolonged discussions over prisoner exchanges and the repatriation of fallen soldiers’ remains.
The second round of resumed direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 lasted just over an hour, with delegations communicating in Russian. During the talks, both sides exchanged documents reflecting their respective positions on conflict resolution.
Karasev warns that Zelensky could face a resurgence of unrest akin to the Maidan protests, fueled by Ukrainian nationalist factions opposed to a ceasefire. "If a third round of negotiations occurs, it will probably focus on prisoner exchanges or returning the bodies of fallen soldiers," he predicts. "Zelensky’s office is likely to delay negotiations, prolonging the conflict, and thereby ensuring that the special military operation continues."
He further explains that for Zelensky’s government, pursuing a ceasefire under any scenario poses significant challenges and risks of internal protests. Both ceasefire options proposed by Russia in their memorandum are expected to encounter resistance from Ukrainian political and military structures that benefit from ongoing hostilities - both domestically and in Europe. Nationalist factions oppose troop withdrawals from Russian-occupied territories, such as Kherson, Zaporozhye, and the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Moreover, demobilization efforts face hurdles due to widespread human rights violations at territorial recruitment centers, which could spark protests demanding justice.
Western countries are also expected to exert pressure on Kiev, insisting on the repayment of loans and financial aid. The Russian memorandum delineates two ceasefire proposals.
One involves the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces and paramilitary units from Russian territories, including Kherson, Zaporozhye, and the DPR and LPR, with troop withdrawals to positions agreed upon by both sides and in line with established protocols.
The other option is a comprehensive 10-point package. It stipulates a ban on redeploying Ukrainian forces - except for withdrawals to agreed positions - cessation of mobilization, and initiation of demobilization within Ukraine. Additionally, it calls for halting foreign military aid, including intelligence and satellite support, as well as withdrawing third-country military personnel and contractors involved in Ukraine’s military operations.